Battle for Hormuz
Autonomous Wealth #34
Events continue to unfold at warp speed, both in life and in financial markets. This past week we have witnessed a sudden, surprising ceasefire between US & Iran brokered by Pakistan to a planned US-led blockade of the strait of Hormuz as talks have just collapsed.
In markets - after a bombastic one-day boom observed this past week in key stock indices (we have seen +5 in Europe and Japan to +7% in Korea), markets will probably price-in more fear. As always, every action and trend may be short lived.
A couple of things to focus in the meanwhile:
(1) some equity sectors have become cheaper
(2) record-low consumer sentiment in the US (see below - chart top left from our new app) will likely lead to a disappointment for Republicans in November at the mid-term elections, unless the US President will do something to end this war in Iran soon.
(3) as expected, the latest inflation reports in US & Europe show prices moving higher; in US specifically, inflation has just risen to 3.3% per year - forget rate cuts in 2026 from the Fed
Pantarai ADAPT last week has quickly scaled down commodities (we sold oil already two weeks agio at $111) and fixed income to raise equities from 8% to 37% (before the one day jump) to 73% now. Portfolio evolution shown before for selected assets.
Speak soon
Nico